Friday, January 25, 2008

Election polls had Dewey winning

Just another reason to hate primary season: breathless reports on polls purporting to place candidates in horce race fashion without mentioning the accuracy margin.

"Obama’s edge on Clinton slipped by two points overnight but remained in double digits, 38 percent to 25 percent, in the rolling poll, with John Edwards gaining two points to climb to 21 percent and inch closer to second place.

Having seen error rates between 3 and 7%, let's use reported number at 5 and look at the place and show possitions in the race,2nd and 3rd: Clinton at 21.4 and Edwards 24.4

How'd they calculate exactly 3.4?

Link from suburbanguerillaand original at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/24/AR2008012401601.html

No comments: